.RU

Russia is fine, they can adapt and a lowered ruble leads to more exports - 1NC: Oil Demand da

Russia

R

ussia is fine, they can adapt and a lowered ruble leads to more exports

OGN

July 9,

2012

, “Crude price slide highlights risks to Putin's Russia” Oil and Gas News, LN

"

In the short term

, in the next one to three years,

we are fine

," says Tchakarov.

He noted that according to Finance Ministry calculations, every one dollar fall in the oil price means that the government loses around 55 billion roubles ($1.7 billion) in oil-related taxes over the course of a year. With the budget presently balancing at around $115 per barrel, an oil price of $90 per barrel, if sustained over a full year, would leave the government short to the tune of around $40 billion a year. But that is still just a fraction of the $185 billion that Russia has stashed away in two fiscal reserve funds, designed to stabilise the budget in just such an emergency.

Even at $60 per barrel - the average oil price during the crisis year of 2009 - the reserve funds could cover the shortfall for about two years.

"I find this worrying about the budget at this moment a little beside the point," says Clemens Grafe, chief Russia economist at Goldman Sachs.

"The fiscal buffers they have to absorb this are going to be sufficient without cutting expenditure."

Analysts also point out that since the previous financial crisis in 2008-2009, the central bank has radically changed the exchange rate regime, allowing the rouble to fall in line with the cheaper oil price. Since oil began its latest slide in mid-March, the rouble has lost around 15 percent of its value against the dollar.

"The rouble weakened exactly in line with the oil price. And a weaker rouble is very good because it will secure the rouble equivalent of oil taxes for the budget," says Evgeny Gavrilenkov, chief economist at Troika Dialog.

Oil Consumption Uniqueness: Down

US oil consumption going down now


The Business Insider,

July 6,

2012

Friday 2:25 PM EST, “Lower Oil Prices Are Definitely Not Good News”

US oil consumption shrank by 3.2 percent, comparing the first four months of 2012

with a similar period of 2011. This is concerning, because based on Figure 5, it looks much like a repeat of the pattern that took place in the 2005 to 2009 time period. Oil consumption was stable during the period 2005 through 2007, then dropped in early 2008 by an amount not too different from the decrease in oil consumption from 2011 to 2012. The bigger step-down in oil consumption came in 2009, after oil prices dropped, and the follow-on effects (reduced credit availability, layoffs) had started. Now oil consumption has been relatively stable in 2009 to 2011, but there has been a step down in consumption in 2012, similar to the step-down in early 2008.

Glut Now

Glut now - New capacity is outstripping demand
Leonardo

Maugeri

, One of the world’s foremost experts on oil, gas “Oil: The Next Revolution The Unprecedented Upsurge Of Oil Production Capacity And What It Means For The World,” June

2012

The Geopolitics of Energy Project, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Oil-%20The%20Next%20Revolution.pdf

Contrary to what most people believe,

oil supply capacity is growing worldwide at such an unprecedented level that it might outpace consumption. This could lead to a glut of overproduction and a steep dip in oil prices

. Based on original, bottom-up, field-by-field analysis of most oil exploration and development projects in the world, this paper suggests that an unrestricted, additional production (the level of production targeted by each single project, according to its schedule, unadjusted for risk) of more than 49 million barrels per day of oil (crude oil and natural gas liquids, or NGLs) is targeted for 2020, the equivalent of more than half the current world production capacity of 93 mbd. After adjusting this substantial figure considering the risk factors affecting the actual accomplishment of the projects on a country-by-country basis, the additional production that could come by 2020 is about 29 mbd. Factoring in depletion rates of currently producing oilfields and their “reserve growth” (the estimated increases in crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids that could be added to existing reserves through extension, revision, improved recovery efficiency, and the discovery of new pools or reservoirs),

the net additional production capacity by 2020 could be 17.6 mbd, yielding a world oil production capacity of 110.6 mbd by that date –

as shown in Figure 1.

This would represent the most significant increase in any decade since the 1980s.


A2: Loss US Jobs

US Jobs are resilient - shales are profitable above $50 barrel
Leonardo

Maugeri

, One of the world’s foremost experts on oil, gas “Oil: The Next Revolution The Unprecedented Upsurge Of Oil Production Capacity And What It Means For The World,” June

2012

The Geopolitics of Energy Project, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Oil-%20The%20Next%20Revolution.pdf

The natural endowment of the initial American shale play, Bakken/Three Forks (a tight oil formation) in North Dakota and Montana, could become a big Persian Gulf producing country within the United States. But the country has more than twenty big shale oil formations, especially the Eagle Ford Shale, where the recent boom is revealing a hydrocarbon endowment comparable to that of the Bakken Shale. Most of U.S. shale and tight oil are profitable at a price of oil (WTI) ranging from $50 to $65 per barrel, thus making them sufficiently resilient to a significant downturn of oil prices. from shale. After considering risk factors and the depletion of currently producing oilfields, the U.S. could see its production capacity increase by 3.5 mbd. Thus, the U.S. could produce 11.6 mbd of crude oil and NGLs by 2020, making the country the second largest oil producer in the world after Saudi Arabia. Adding biofuels to this figure, the overall U.S. liquid capacity could exceed 13 mbd, representing about 65 percent of its current consumption.

A2: US Modelled/Tek Key

US development boom will be unique – other states don’t have the ingenuity of a strong private sector
Leonardo

Maugeri

, One of the world’s foremost experts on oil, gas “Oil: The Next Revolution The Unprecedented Upsurge Of Oil Production Capacity And What It Means For The World,” June

2012

The Geopolitics of Energy Project, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Oil-%20The%20Next%20Revolution.pdf

Before examining the extent of the shale/tight oil revolution in the U.S., it is worth noting that it is not only the result of a huge resource endowment, but it also stems from the uniqueness of some features of the U.S. oil industry and market, which make it difficult to be replicated in other areas of the world – at least in a short period of time.

First of all, in the U.S., individuals and companies may own property rights on mineral resources, while in most parts of the world these rights belong to states only. This fact gives a huge incentive to land owners to lease their property rights and to the oil industry to lease or buy them.

Another major feature of the uniqueness of the U.S. and Canada is the presence of thousands of independent oil companies, ranging from very small to multibillion companies, that historically played the role of pioneering new frontiers.

The strategies and business models of these independent companies are usually much different from those of the large, integrated multinational oil companies, and require a short digression.

Oil independents typically search for high risk-high reward opportunities whose potential is uncertain and whose initial development cannot comply with the rigid financial criteria used by big oils for taking investment decisions. Moreover, most of these companies, oftentimes owned by a single person or a small group of partners, are mostly focused on cash flows and growth, rather than profits and high profitability, at least in the first stages of their development.

As long as they are successful in their undertakings while being cash-positive, they will succeed in getting the money they need to grow their business. Eventually, they can decide to sell their entire business to larger independents or bigger oil companies, as well as to go public. Their time-frame for success, thus, is much shorter than that of big multinational oil companies: they couldn’t afford the be cash-negative for long periods of time, otherwise their investors could stop supplying money; they cannot be unsuccessful in their growth-strategies, otherwise they cannot make money by selling part (of all) of their equity. Although highly innovative, then, oil independents usually do not do not engage in proprietary technology development (an exception is represented by larger independents), but they apply or adapt existing technologies in innovative ways to new targets, improving their processes and applications, thanks to the help of oil service companies (such as Halliburton or Schlumberger) that are the real owners of technological know-how in the oil and gas sector.

Another feature of the U.S. (and Canada) oil and gas sector is the presence of several financial institutions, funds, capital ventures, equity firms that are eager to fund independent companies, oftentimes by becoming their equity partners.

A final, unique feature of the U.S. (and Canadian) hydrocarbon arena is the broad availability and flexible market of drilling rigs and other essential tools of oil exploration and production. For instance, the U.S. and Canada have about 65 percent of all drilling rigs existing in the world.

All these features are foreign to other parts of the world, and they make the U.S. and Canada a sort of unique play for experimentation and innovation, such in the case of U.S. shale oil and gas or Canadian tar sands.

A2: Maugeri

Maugeri production decline estimates are overly optimistic
Euan

Mearns

 on July 11, 20

12

(http://www.theoildrum.com/tag/depletion_rate)

If we replace Maugeri’s 1.6% decline rate assumption with the IEA estimate of 4.1%, the projected loss of production capacity over the period to 2020 increases from 11 mb/d to 26.5 mb/d.

In turn, the projected global production capacity in 2020 reduces from 110.6 mb/d to 95.1mb/d (a reduction of 14%).

Since average decline rates would be expected to increase over this period

, this projection must be considered optimistic

.¶ The bottom line is that

Maugeri has made some very optimistic assumptions about global average decline rates, failed to provide adequate justification for them and misrepresented the estimates made by others. Adopting more realistic estimates would significantly change his results


2010-07-19 18:44 Читать похожую статью
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • Контрольная работа
  • © Помощь студентам
    Образовательные документы для студентов.